Friday, May 31, 2013

Trade Idea: Sell SGD/INR

EM currencies have been slammed as of late, making it very difficult to advocate buying any exotic against any major, especially USD.  However, the idea of selling EM currencies against each other in search for "relative value" and fat carry is more attractive than ever, given EMs are moving in lockstep.  On this front, I have initiated small short position in SGD/INR.  Singapore is hardly an emerging market, with GDP per capital over 60,000 US dollars.  However, its export driven economy is tied closely to Asia and its emerging markets.  Indeed, SGD has been whacked with all Asian currencies as of late.  Therefore, given rock bottom Singaporean interest rates and relative high rates in India,   an odd but usually stable carry trade opportunity has emerged.  For the foreseeable future, these two currencies should move together.  Thus, while underlying value of the pair will continue to trade in a tight range, the shorting it should produce a steady stream of relatively low risk carry in the  coming weeks and months. 

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